What might Scotland’s election results mean for IndyRef2?

Elections for the Scottish parliament are taking place on Thursday. We examine the possible results and their implications for a future independence referendum.

How likely is it that the SNP will win a majority in Thursday’s Scottish parliament elections?

The most recent polls have painted a divergent picture, ranging from Savanta ComRes for the Scotsman predicting the SNP winning 59 seats, a loss of two MSPs and six short of a majority, to 68 MSPs calculated by YouGov for the Times Scotland, three beyond the 65-seat threshold for a majority.

It’s worth keeping in mind that the Scottish parliament’s voting system was specifically set up to prevent one party winning an overall majority, in an attempt to break away from the two-party politics of Westminster and produce a more proportional parliament.

The SNP did win a majority in 2011 but party strategists acknowledge this was highly unusual.

If it does happen on Thursday, it is then very easy for Nicola Sturgeon to argue she has a mandate for a second independence referendum, which is pledged in her party’s manifesto and which she has said she hopes to hold by the end of 2023, provided the Covid crisis has passed.

If the SNP does not win an outright majority, will the party seek to form a coalition?

Not necessarily – the SNP has been governing as a minority government for the past five years, relying on the votes of Scottish Green MSPs to pass significant legislation such as the budget bill – although a formal coalition might be considered to add more heft to any argument about a pro-independence mandate.

The Scottish Greens, who are expected to at least double their five MSPS, have said they would be “willing to have the conversation” with the SNP, but would demand far tougher climate policy. They have emphasised during the campaign the ways that the party has successfully influenced the SNP – such as free school meals for primary children, the eviction ban during the pandemic and public sector pay in the most recent budget.

Sturgeon has stated repeatedly that she would not work with Alba, the other pro-independence party that could gain seats, led by the former first minister Alex Salmond.

What does it mean for independence if the SNP falls short of a majority?

It remains highly likely that pro-independence parties will hold the most Holyrood seats after Thursday, which would still underpin Sturgeon’s calls for a new referendum.

Sturgeon has said that, even if Westminster continues to refuse the Scottish parliament the requisite powers to hold a legal referendum, she plans to take the legislation through Holyrood, forcing Boris Johnson to challenge it in the courts.

But while her language around waiting until after the initial Covid crisis has passed is usefully vague, Sturgeon will no doubt also be guided by recent polling, which indicates that support for independence has fallen back since the sustained majority for yes last year, while only about one-third want to see a second vote within the SNP’s proposed timeframe.

If Alba wins seats, Salmond could have an ongoing disruptive influence as he styles himself as the person keeping the SNP honest on independence: he has already called for the new Holyrood administration to open talks with Westminster on splitting from the UK in its early weeks.

Sturgeon has warned that this risks putting off undecided voters: “Pretending that any of that is an alternative or a substitute for getting the majority of people to vote for independence in a legitimate process is misleading people”, she told the Guardian in a recent interview.