Ministers could defy JCVI and go ahead with Covid jabs for all 12- to 15-year-olds

Ministers could for the first time defy the advice of their official vaccine advisers and push ahead with Covid jabs for all 12- to 15-year-olds, after the scientific body concluded the net health benefit in vaccinating the age group was too small.

In a move which highlights a growing divide between government and scientific advisers over the next phase of the vaccination programme, ministers will seek extra evidence which may help overturn the watchdog’s verdict.

In a statement on Friday, after days of speculation, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) said that while the health gains from vaccinating the entire age group were greater than the risks, “the margin of benefit is considered too small to support universal vaccination of healthy 12- to 15-year-olds at this time”.

Instead, the committee recommended an expansion to an existing programme of vaccinations for older children with health conditions, including heart disease, type 1 diabetes and severe asthma, increasing the eligible cohort to about 200,000.

The decision came as a blow to the government, which has in recent days both quietly agitated for a decision from the JCVI, given most schools in England have returned this week, and pointed to existing mass vaccination programmes for such children in places including Israel, the US and Germany.

However, in a tacit invitation to overrule its own recommendation the JCVI stressed that because its remit does not include wider issues such as disruption to schools, ministers could consider seeking separate advice on this, an unprecedented suggestion by the organisation.

“This isn’t the JCVI saying no,” said a government source. “They’ve said there is a marginal benefit, but as they make clear, they’re assessing it from a very narrow view.”

Immediately after the JCVI announcement, Sajid Javid, the health secretary, and his counterparts in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland wrote to the chief medical officers in their countries, asking them to “consider the matter from a broader perspective”.

While officials stress they will wait for the verdict, it remains very possible that the JCVI’s recommendation is overturned. “We don’t want to prejudge it, but vaccinations for all 12- to 15-year-olds is very much still on the table,” another government source said.

It does, however, add more delay to a plan ministers had hoped to begin as schools returned, with the chief medical officers expected to meet next week, with expectations they could need “several days” to assess the evidence.

Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said he was pleased that “the door appears to have been left open” for the government to go ahead with vaccinations for more school-age children.

“The trouble is that time is pressing, the autumn term is upon us and we really do need a decision,” Barton said. “We simply cannot have another term in which there is major educational disruption.”

There was vehement criticism from other scientists of the JCVI’s decision, which is understood to have been reached via a majority vote at a meeting on Thursday.

Dr Deepti Gurdasani, a clinical epidemiologist from Queen Mary University, London, called the move “completely shocking”.

Gurdasani said: “They are recklessly endangering children’s health based on ideology rather than science. The benefits of vaccination overwhelmingly outweigh the risks – this has been clear for a while. Yet, as more than 12 million children have been vaccinated across the globe, and 47% fully vaccinated in France, with many European countries close to this target, JCVI has taken an exceptional stance with absolutely no scientific justification.”

One risk raised by the JCVI was the chance of myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, in children who receive the vaccine. While this is extremely rare, and children tend to recover quickly, there was uncertainty about any longer term effects, with further research needed, it said.

But Lawrence Young, a virologist from the University of Warwick said, the risk of developing myocarditis was “significantly higher for those youngsters who have contracted Covid-19 compared to those who have been vaccinated with the Pfizer jab”.

He added: “This is a very disappointing and worrying decision.”

Coronavirus infections in Scotland, where schools returned a fortnight ago, have risen to their highest level since estimates began last autumn, new figures showed, with one in 75 people thought to have Covid last week, up from one in 140 the previous week.

While the figure for England, around one in 70 people, is unchanged from the previous week, ministers are aware that the return of schools could change this.

Separately, the JCVI still has to decide on the issue of third, “booster” jabs, and whether these should be universal or aimed only at older or more clinically vulnerable people. A decision is expected next week, after the release of results from a study on the issue.

While no ministers have publicly criticised the JCVI there is frustration at its pace of decision-making. On Friday the former health secretary Jeremy Hunt said ministers should consider rolling out booster injections even without a green light from the watchdog.